Crushing the Odds: Breaking 2017 Topps Chrome Update Mega Boxes (Superfractor Alert)

Topps has certainly done its job capitalizing on the card boom of 2017. While the chase for Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger has been fun, my Christmas wish is that the hobby bubble doesn't burst in 2018.

Wal-Mart and Target have been home to many retail exclusives releases this year, and the Topps Chrome Update Mega Boxes arrived at Targe Lot just ahead of the busy holiday shopping season.

Packed with autographs and Superfractors, the Mega Boxes were an instant hit with a retail price of $19.99. With its timely release, Target has run several sales bringing that price point down further. The Saturday before Thanksgiving, Target offered a great deal on cards that drove the per box price down to under $14 shipped. 

Many collectors ordered these mega boxes in bulk online (two at a time - Target's per transaction limit). Personally, I cruised the conservative route buying six boxes total during the sale.

Additionally, I found a plethora of Mega Boxes on a Target shelf that same day and picked up three for instant gratification. 

The first three boxes yielded little, with one base Refractor /250, but a number of base Bellinger and Judge rookies. Eight combined in those first three boxes which equals about half the cost of the boxes, not a bad return on retail on eight cards. 

Four boxes were delivered a few days later and nothing much. A few more Bellinger and Judge base rookies and another /250 Refractor. Through seven boxes it looked like a big waste and felt fortunate that I hadn't gone all in like many others.

Then came the final two boxes! I wasn't even excited as I began opening the first box. It was almost as if I was doing it as quickly as possible to get it over with and move on to the next release.

Box one, pack two: There it was! The second or third card felt heavier. It must be a refractor. I flipped the Christian Arroyo card over. It was no refractor. It was super. Yes, a Christian Arroyo Superfractor. My first Superfractor pull. And then came the fourth pack in the same box. A Josh Hader XFractor autograph 19/99. I would say this box destroyed the odds.

Putting that in perspective, the odds for a Superfractor are 1:5,529 packs. Odds for a XFractor autograph are 1:165 packs. If the odds play out, it would cost (pre-tax full retail) $15,792.10 before you would pull a Superfractor. I liked my odds!

Nine Box Results

Christian Arroyo Superfractor 

Josh Hader XFractor Autograph 19/99

Jesse Winker XFractor

Miguel Sano Refractor 

Jorge Bonifacio Refractor

Aaron Judge base rookies (6)

Cody Bellinger base rookies (8)